Basketball Game Theory
Read & React
Every possession you call a play; the defense answers with a coverage. Each matchup is worth a number of expected points — grounded in real shot efficiency. The catch: the defense watches what you like and sits on it. Lean on your best shot and it disappears. The winning answer is a mixed strategy — the blend a perfect read can't beat. Score the par (the game's theoretical value) and you've out-read the defense.
1. Take the Open Shot
Concept: dominant strategy
Possession 1 / 10
Your points: 0Par: 11.2
| EV (pts) vs… | Drop ◂ | Switch |
|---|---|---|
| Attack the Paint (2) | 1.12 | 1.20 |
| Mid-Range Pull-Up (2) | 0.88 | 0.84 |
Call a play. The defense adapts to your tendencies — don't get predictable.